Andrew Zatlin's Contributions

What makes me think the economy is slowing? Because that’s what corporate America is saying. We know that there’s an industrial recession going on… even if we remove those commodity impacted sectors like materials.

We’re witnessing a very typical pattern right before recessions and market collapses. The market’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is currently at a level seen only before recessions. Before we flat out say there will be a recession, we need to dig...

The Vice Index indicates a sharp downturn in retail spending… beginning in the fourth quarter (October.). Regular Moneyball readers know the Vice Index is the best way to gauge the American consumer. It’s proprietary research...

Vice spending is telling us that good times are still here, but it’s also signaling that we’re peaking. There is very little growth left and it’s likely that things will get a bit wobbly at year-end. This means a lot of Central Bank intervention...

Mr. Market (S&P 500) keeps hitting 2,100, only to pull back. That level is a psychological magnet, drawing investors closer. Failure to hold and advance above it means a top. You need to be concerned that the market hasn’t moved up...

Foreboding macroeconomic signals keep on popping up, and it would be wise to pay attention. In case you can’t tell, this is exactly like late 2006 with key (worse) differences: The macroeconomy has peaked: Jobless claims are barely below...

On recent earnings calls, restaurant chains were quick to declare that margins were safe thanks to a deflationary environment. For example, 40% of Denny’s (Nasdaq: DENN) non-labor costs are beef and eggs and the company has...

Semiconductors are uniquely positioned as leading macroeconomic indicators. First, they are the most universally common denominator when it comes to products and services: if it doesn’t have a semiconductor chip in it...

For most American households, everything is fine. But for more and more households, things are not so good. The industrial sector’s recession has spread and it’s getting more impactful. That’s one leak. Another is that income growth is slowing.

Semiconductors are the universal common denominator of the 21st-century economy. Once upon a time, these parts were mostly found in only a few things: computers, calculators, and consumer electronics.

In the eyes of consumers, everything is awesome. The stock market has rebounded in full and distant threats to disposable income (slowing wage growth, rising inflation, end of gas price-dividend) are exactly that, distant.

The payroll slowdown has jumped from being an energy sector problem to an all-industry problem. Industrial companies are currently in a defensive posture because they expect little or even slightly negative revenue growth this year.

The Fed’s next move with interest rates is the biggest issue driving global credit and equity markets. The fundamental idea is that the economy is like a candle: if it burns too bright, it burns out faster...

Silicon Valley’s economy rests on the stock market more than any other US city outside of New York. Investors pour in billions of dollars with the expectation that the startups will have some kind of liquidity event...

China drove the recent economic boom, just as it is behind the recent malaise. A turnaround in Chinese demand would certainly change things but the current data does not look promising. For China’s trade partners, it means recession today. Only Germany and the US look...

Apple may beat its numbers, but long-term the company’s market share will keep slipping. On the latest earnings report, Apple showed growth where it counts because it gamed the system. This time last year, the numbers were US-centric. This year, they include...

As we head into autumn, investor attention turns to the holiday shopping season. It’s an economically important time: in less than three months, over 1 million people will be hired. That’s a massive boost to wages.