Kurt Kallaus's Contributions

Kurt Kallaus’ Economic Outlook Amid Slowing Global Economy and Trade War Tensions

Aug 13 – Kurt Kallaus joins FS Insider to share his current economic outlook given the deterioration of U.S. - China relations. He discusses ongoing weakness in the manufacturing sector and how the trade war could change consumer sentiment. He also explains...

Happy Consumers vs. Worried Producers

Jul 31– It’s great news that the U.S. economy (GDP) grew a better than expected 2.1% in the second quarter. It’s a far cry from the three to five percent Trump expects and the fluke 3.1% in the first quarter, but it’s also a long way from the recession expectations...

The Empire Falls: Economy Stumbles

Jul 16 – Since 2001 the New York Federal Reserve has compiled a manufacturing survey of the NY Empire State. It moves in step with most other Fed district surveys and provides a good measure of the industrial sector. After rising from a near recessionary collapse...

Bullard Wants a Rate Cut Now

Jun 26 – Prominent St. Louis Fed Chair James Bullard doesn’t like gaming investor expectations. The Federal Reserve has conveyed to the markets that they will not cut rates in June but hinted the Fed will oblige in late July. Bullard feels that if you see weakness...

No China Pain, No Trade Gain

May 30 – When US steel tariffs kicked in a year ago, the yuan depreciated sharply, which reduced the effectiveness of tariffs with cheaper Chinese export prices. The yuan had been rallying in 2019 as a trade agreement seemed imminent, but their currency plunged...

The U.S. and Israel Are Itching for a Fight, Says Kurt Kallaus

May 16 – Earlier this year, Kurt Kallaus at ExecSpec.net told FS Insider listeners that stocks were likely to head higher and eventually take out their 2018 highs. That’s exactly what happened a few weeks back...

Trump Moves Closer to Defanging Iran

May 16 – Over 2,000 years ago Iran, known then as Persia, was the world’s first super power. Since becoming an anti-western theocratic Islamic Republic in 1979, Iran has been in the crosshairs of conservative...

New Trump Tariff Threat Tanks Stock Market

May 6 – Virtually every week this year confidence of a major trade agreement between the US and China has grown. Just a few days ago Trump surrogates spread rumors that a deal would be announced in a week. Suddenly, a lack of progress on trade deal enforcement terms...

Economic Green Shoots Anticipate Trade Deal Bloom

Apr 22 – In 2018, the U.S. economy expanded beyond its sustainable production capacity, juiced by massive tax cuts and global preordering ahead of Trump’s tariff hikes. As winter approached...

Stocks Anticipate China Trade Deal and Stronger GDP

Apr 3 – The stock market discounts future expectations. The roaring rally of the past 14 weeks cast aside recession ruminations and increasingly anticipates an economic rebound coincident with an important trade agreement...

Aversion to Yield Inversion

Mar 29 – Normal economic expansions are supported by positive sloping yield curves where riskier long duration maturities offering higher rates of return than lower risk short duration debt. Investor aversion to an inverted yield curve...

Household Wealth Close to Stall Speed

Mar 12 – Corporate balance sheets are in excellent shape, but equally impressive is the net worth of the American household that grows virtually every single quarter year over year. During rare periods when it doesn’t expand, it typically...

Work Less, Earn More?

Mar 6 – Working fewer hours at higher pay sounds like a good thing. It may be better than it sounds. Both high skilled white collar and lower skilled blue collar jobs are requiring less...

Car Loans Crash – No Impact

Feb 28 – By early 2008, a few months after a major bull market peak in stocks, yellow flags on the U.S. economy turned red across the spectrum. Bond spread risks were spiking, consumer and business confidence surveys collapsing, and many indicators...

Where Is the Next Sovereign Debt Crisis?

Feb 19 – US debt surpassing 100% of our annual GDP sounds worrisome, yet China and Japan are much higher. While much of China’s debt is held in its quasi government owned corporations and municipalities, their total debt to GDP is estimated...

Market Outlook Pivots on U.S.-China Trade Deal, Says Kurt Kallaus

Feb 13 – He called the October 2018 peak in U.S. stocks and the December lows; now, Kurt Kallaus at ExecSpec.net says the future direction of the stock market is highly tied to a U.S.-China trade deal as the US dollar, commodities, and...

The Dog Ate My Eurozone Recovery

Feb 13 – European dysfunction is making Trump’s economic ‘strategy’ look prescient. We all know that trade wars are bad for all economies, yet the U.S. economy accelerated in 2018 while all others have slowed to a crawl as U.S. tariff threats across multiple...

Stocks Sink on Fear of Trade Deal Delay

Feb 08 – The China trade deal expectations continue to be the most important driver of US stock indices in 2019. Bullish Trump tweets and robust rhetoric from Chinese leaders had buoyed investors more than recent dovish Fed commentary. Having already priced...

Trade Deal Sentiment Helps Dollar Fall

Jan 14 – President Trump campaigned in 2016 on making the US dollar weak again to reduce the endless wave of record trade deficits with China. Clearly, he delivered on that pledge throughout 2017 as the dollar Index fell 12 percent and devalued almost 11 percent against the Chinese...

Setting Up for a First Quarter Market Low

Jan 7 – With stocks having sold off roughly 20% from their October peak, the market has already priced in some global weakness as well as slower earnings and GDP growth in the US. While uncertainty remains, we continue to forecast...