Chris Puplava's Blog

Chief Investment Officer
chris [dot] puplava [at] financialsense [dot] com ()

Financial Sense® Advisors, Inc.
Chief Investment Officer
Financial Sense® Securities, Inc.
Registered Representative
Financial Sense
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Chris graduated magna cum laude with a B.S. in Biochemistry from California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo. He joined Financial Sense® Wealth Management in 2005 and is a Chartered Retirement Planning Counselor (CRPC®) with the College for Financial Planning. Chris is also currently a level III Chartered Financial Analyst candidate. His professional designations include FINRA Series 7 and Series 66 Uniform Combined State Law Exam. He contributes articles to Financial Sense as well as occasional interviews and updates on Financial Sense Newshour. Chris enjoys the outdoors.

Peak Fed Rate Expectations? Using the 2-Year UST Yield to Time the Fed Pivot

May 25 – Since the 1981-1982 recession, every time the 2yr UST yield dipped below the fed funds rate by 50 bps or more, the Fed cut interest rates within 1 year, no exceptions. The typical lead time was just under 2 months...

Are We There Yet? (AKA: Is the Bottom In?)

May 18 – With financial markets not quite near seizure levels, we do not appear to be close to a Fed pivot yet. Further, the other concern given the decline in economic growth (negative print in GDP for Q1 2022) is that analysts continue to not price in...

Macro Headwinds Abound

Mar 4 – New home sales are down double-digits from last year’s level as a 30-year fixed rate mortgages have surged from under 3% to nearly 5%. Unless mortgage rates move materially lower soon, the slowdown in housing is...

As Volatility Picks Up, Here's Where Investors Are Putting Their Money

Jan 21 – Current money flows are reflecting a reactionary positioning to higher inflation and higher interest rates with dramatic moves seen across the ETF space. Also, as shown below, money is coming out of very large, passive ETFs and going into...

Most Recent Data Shows a Large Withdrawal in Market Liquidity Underway

Jan 4 – While economic growth is likely to remain positive in 2022, we are seeing a large withdrawal in market liquidity coming from several sources: Fed QE is ending, REPO facility is exploding to nearly $2T, and the US Treasury will be...

Slowing US and Global Growth; Credit Risks in Focus

Nov 16 – US and global growth is slowing after a strong initial recovery. We have the fiscal cliff ahead of us as well as the Fed's planned tapering of its QE purchases. Growth will likely slow well into the first half of 2022 and with it some moderation...

Clash of the Tech Titans and Revenge of the ‘Old Economy’

Oct 1 – The dramatic shift away from “dirty energy” to “green energy” has seen large investor capital shift away from resource companies that dominated in the early 2000s towards the FAANG stocks over the last decade. This shift in capital coupled with falling commodity prices

Don’t Call It a Stock Market Because It Ain’t—It’s an “MA Market”

Sep 22 – Over the last three months, Microsoft drove a whopping 16.8% of the S&P 500’s return and Apple 14.6%. Literally, just two of the 500 stocks in the S&P 500 drove nearly one third of the entire index’s return! Throw in the next top two...

The Reflation Trade Under Fire

Jul 16 – While off to a fast start in the first quarter, the reflation trade has taken a blow that puts its longevity into question. In simplistic terms, reflation characterizes an upswing in economic growth which sees both growth and inflation accelerate...

Money for Nothing, Checks for Free - I Want My, I Want My MMT

Apr 15 – The U.S. consumer is now equipped with record savings and has been confined to spending mostly on goods versus services. For example, personal consumption on goods has not only eclipsed its prior highs...

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