Chris Puplava's Blog

Chief Investment Officer
chris [dot] puplava [at] financialsense [dot] com ()

Financial Sense® Advisors, Inc.
Chief Investment Officer
Financial Sense® Securities, Inc.
Registered Representative
Financial Sense
Columnist & Guest
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Chris graduated magna cum laude with a B.S. in Biochemistry from California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo. He joined Financial Sense® Wealth Management in 2005 and is currently pursuing the designation of Chartered Financial Analyst. His professional designations include FINRA Series 7 and Series 66 Uniform Combined State Law Exam. He contributes articles to Financial Sense as well as occasional interviews and updates on Financial Sense Newshour. Chris enjoys the outdoors.

Global Inflection Points: China, Oil, and Plunging Bond Yields

Aug 7 – As a follow-up to my warnings last month prior to the recent correction, several areas are at make-or-break inflection points that we are watching closely for signs of a bottom in the overall market or for a further break from current levels...

Is a Bad Moon Rising for the Stock Market?

Jul 24 – Further warning signs are continuing to build that give us caution on the outlook for equities. High yield option-adjusted spreads (OAS) are not confirming the new high in the S&P 500 and have worsened over the last three weeks. Same for...

US Stock Market Showing Tech-Bubble Divergence

Jul 18 – The technical picture of the US stock market isn't all that healthy right now. In fact, the only other time we have seen divergences in breadth this large was during the blow-off years of the tech bubble. Bottom line: Breadth levels are warning of a possible market top...

Policy Misstep Deja Vu?

Jun 12 – Historically, the market rallies post the first Fed rate cut and continues to do so as long as the onset of a recession is at least a year out. However, when a recession begins less than a year out from the Fed’s first cut the market’s initial rally quickly fades...

Market Looking Vulnerable: A Deep Dive Into Bond Spreads and Market Internals

Mar 27 – One of the areas of concern cited by the Fed last year was the leveraged loan market, which took a nose dive in Q4. This space had a strong Q1 rally but has since peaked and is rolling over again. Looking at corporate credit default swaps...

Was It All Just a Bad Dream?

Mar 22 – The answer to that question depends on what one believes were the ultimate causes of the decline and what the outlook is for 2019. If you believe the fourth quarter 2018 decline was largely...

Chris Puplava's 2019 Outlook - Buckle Up!

Feb 07 – At the onset of 2018, market soothsayers gave their outlooks for the year. The consistent theme from every economic commentator and investment strategist was jubilation for the most synchronized global growth period since the 2008 ...

To Pause, or Not to Pause: That Is the Question

Dec 14 – Next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting outcome will likely end the market’s consolidation over the last two months. If the Fed turns a deaf ear to the market and does not signal a pause...

Nearly Two-Thirds of the Entire U.S. Stock Market Just Went Through a Bear Market

Nov 12 – The S&P 500 fell 6.9 percent last month, making it the third worst month since the bull market began nearly 10 years ago. The decline was sharp and swift with some U.S. companies losing over $10B in market capitalization...

US Markets Likely to Recouple with Global Equities - Correction Ahead

By Chris Puplava – In our Q3 2018 newsletter (And Then There Were None) we highlighted three concerns we felt could ultimately weigh on US markets, causing them to resync with global equities, which have been declining for most of the year...

Watch for Signs of European Flight to Safety Spilling Over to U.S. Shores

By Chris Puplava – It seems as though every year we have a scare in Europe and, if it’s not Greece, then it’s another member of the infamous “PIGS” countries (Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain). This year, Italy is in the spotlight...

And Then There Were None

By Chris Puplava – Over the last year, we have progressively seen global equity markets undergo significant declines from their highs while U.S. markets have remained resilient. This is likely due to the tax stimulus passed last year as well as record corporate...

Credit Default Swaps Show Liquidity Risks Remain

By Chris Puplava – Deutsche Bank credit default swaps (insurance against default risk) are moving back up today. Unicredit (Italian Bank) CDS moving back up after a 2-3 day respite while the stock price remains weak. At the same time, there has been NO rally...

We Are About to See Who’s Swimming Naked

By Chris Puplava – Buffett is full of pithy quotes. One of my favorites is, “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” In the realm of investing, the tide of liquidity (or the amount of money (or the amount of money circulating...

Trump Giveth and Trump Taketh Away

By Chris Puplava – The markets rallied strongly over the last year on President Trump’s tax reform and now the markets have, more recently, been selling off due to tariffs. As investors are coming to learn, when it comes to the stock market, Trump giveth and...

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