Chris Puplava's Blog

Chief Investment Officer
chris [dot] puplava [at] financialsense [dot] com ()

Financial Sense® Advisors, Inc.
Portfolio Manager
Financial Sense® Securities, Inc.
Registered Representative
Financial Sense
Columnist

Chris graduated magna cum laude with a B.S. in Biochemistry from California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo. He joined Financial Sense® Wealth Management in 2005 and is currently pursuing the designation of Chartered Financial Analyst. His professional designations include FINRA Series 7 and Series 66 Uniform Combined State Law Exam. He contributes articles and Market Observations to Financial Sense and co-authors In the Know—a weekly communication for Jim Puplava's clients only—with other members of the trading staff. Chris enjoys the outdoors.

Policy Misstep Deja Vu?

Jun 12 – Historically, the market rallies post the first Fed rate cut and continues to do so as long as the onset of a recession is at least a year out. However, when a recession begins less than a year out from the Fed’s first cut the market’s initial rally quickly fades...

Market Looking Vulnerable: A Deep Dive Into Bond Spreads and Market Internals

Mar 27 – One of the areas of concern cited by the Fed last year was the leveraged loan market, which took a nose dive in Q4. This space had a strong Q1 rally but has since peaked and is rolling over again. Looking at corporate credit default swaps...

Was It All Just a Bad Dream?

Mar 22 – The answer to that question depends on what one believes were the ultimate causes of the decline and what the outlook is for 2019. If you believe the fourth quarter 2018 decline was largely...

Chris Puplava's 2019 Outlook - Buckle Up!

Feb 07 – At the onset of 2018, market soothsayers gave their outlooks for the year. The consistent theme from every economic commentator and investment strategist was jubilation for the most synchronized global growth period since the 2008 ...

To Pause, or Not to Pause: That Is the Question

Dec 14 – Next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting outcome will likely end the market’s consolidation over the last two months. If the Fed turns a deaf ear to the market and does not signal a pause...

Nearly Two-Thirds of the Entire U.S. Stock Market Just Went Through a Bear Market

Nov 12 – The S&P 500 fell 6.9 percent last month, making it the third worst month since the bull market began nearly 10 years ago. The decline was sharp and swift with some U.S. companies losing over $10B in market capitalization...

US Markets Likely to Recouple with Global Equities - Correction Ahead

By Chris Puplava – In our Q3 2018 newsletter (And Then There Were None) we highlighted three concerns we felt could ultimately weigh on US markets, causing them to resync with global equities, which have been declining for most of the year...

Watch for Signs of European Flight to Safety Spilling Over to U.S. Shores

By Chris Puplava – It seems as though every year we have a scare in Europe and, if it’s not Greece, then it’s another member of the infamous “PIGS” countries (Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain). This year, Italy is in the spotlight...

And Then There Were None

By Chris Puplava – Over the last year, we have progressively seen global equity markets undergo significant declines from their highs while U.S. markets have remained resilient. This is likely due to the tax stimulus passed last year as well as record corporate...

Credit Default Swaps Show Liquidity Risks Remain

By Chris Puplava – Deutsche Bank credit default swaps (insurance against default risk) are moving back up today. Unicredit (Italian Bank) CDS moving back up after a 2-3 day respite while the stock price remains weak. At the same time, there has been NO rally...

We Are About to See Who’s Swimming Naked

By Chris Puplava – Buffett is full of pithy quotes. One of my favorites is, “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” In the realm of investing, the tide of liquidity (or the amount of money (or the amount of money circulating...

Trump Giveth and Trump Taketh Away

By Chris Puplava – The markets rallied strongly over the last year on President Trump’s tax reform and now the markets have, more recently, been selling off due to tariffs. As investors are coming to learn, when it comes to the stock market, Trump giveth and...

Game Plan for Late-Cycle Investing

By Chris Puplava – There are several strategies to help one navigate increasing market risk in the latter phase of the business cycle and we will touch on two of them, with risk management being the most important. As stock valuations become elevated and...

Using Recent Bubbles to Estimate a Bottom in Bitcoin

By Chris Puplava – Silver peaked April 25, 2011 and then placed a major bottom on December 29th of that same year—178 days later. The Shanghai Index peaked on June 12, 2015 and bottomed on January 27th of 2016—162 days later. Overlapping the two...

Records Were Made to Be Broken

By Chris Puplava – Given the current trajectory and strength of leading economic indicators it appears that the U.S. economy may survive 2018 without the risk of slipping into a recession, raising the possibility of this cycle becoming the longest on record...