Chris Puplava's Blog

Apr 15, 2024 – The U.S. is on the brink of a financial challenge with nearly $9 trillion of its debt approaching maturity within the next year. This debt will need to be refinanced at interest rates much higher than when it was originally taken on—almost twice as high, in fact...

Jan 19, 2024 – Our belief is that there will primarily be one call to get correct—one call to rule them all—and that is whether the US economy has a hard landing (recession) or soft one. Getting this call right can set the tone for everything else as...

Oct 11, 2023 – During the Great Depression, the deficit as a percentage of GDP reached a high of 6.1% in 1936. In 2009, we reached another record of 9.8%. However, over the last few years, all prior records have now been shattered...

Apr 25, 2023 – Anyone arguing that we are not heading into a recession may be deluding themselves. The biggest deposit flight we have seen in 50 years from commercial banks shows no sign of stopping. Why is this important? Well, commercial banks...

Apr 12, 2023 – The tightening of lending standards by banks, even before the collapse of SVB, is making it difficult for consumers and businesses to borrow, resulting in a decline in loans outstanding. The NFIB Small Business lobby surveys small businesses each month and...

Aug 18 – The recent 6-month slide in existing home sales is so steep that even the sharpest deceleration during the housing bubble could not match the recent pace in declining home sales in that it took 9 months to fall in 2007 to match...

Aug 1 – A true pause by the Fed means an end to rate hikes AND an end to shrinking its balance sheet. The market is cheering that we may be getting closer to the former but, I believe, has yet to come to grips with the latter...

Jul 14 – As shown by the chart below, the Biden administration is selling off US Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) at the fastest pace on record. As of today, we are now at the lowest levels since 1985. Here is where things get concerning...

May 25 – Since the 1981-1982 recession, every time the 2yr UST yield dipped below the fed funds rate by 50 bps or more, the Fed cut interest rates within 1 year, no exceptions. The typical lead time was just under 2 months...

May 18 – With financial markets not quite near seizure levels, we do not appear to be close to a Fed pivot yet. Further, the other concern given the decline in economic growth (negative print in GDP for Q1 2022) is that analysts continue to not price in...