Chris Puplava's Blog

Mar 4, 2025 – The initial surge of optimism in the stock market following Trump’s election has faded. Business and consumer confidence, which soared due to reduced tax uncertainty and hopes for a strong economy, is now being replaced...

Feb 26, 2025 – Just two months into the year, gold has left other asset classes in the dust, delivering impressive returns. However, after its explosive start, a short-term pullback or consolidation may be on the horizon before the yellow metal...

Jan 17, 2025 – Looking ahead, increased market volatility across stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies is expected. This volatility is tied to potential policy changes, particularly in trade. The primary drivers of market performance in 2025 are likely...

Oct 14 – The coordinated global easing cycle since last month is one of the most active for rate cuts since the turn of the century—comparable to March 2020 and the 2008-2009 period. Historically, such periods of global easing have led to strong economic...

Jul 23, 2024 – The stock market typically rallies after the last Fed rate hike through the onset of a recession. However, once a recession begins, the stock market has seen declines as little as 9% (1980 recession) to as great as 54% (2007-2009)...

Apr 15, 2024 – The U.S. is on the brink of a financial challenge with nearly $9 trillion of its debt approaching maturity within the next year. This debt will need to be refinanced at interest rates much higher than when it was originally taken on—almost twice as high, in fact...

Jan 19, 2024 – Our belief is that there will primarily be one call to get correct—one call to rule them all—and that is whether the US economy has a hard landing (recession) or soft one. Getting this call right can set the tone for everything else as...

Oct 11, 2023 – During the Great Depression, the deficit as a percentage of GDP reached a high of 6.1% in 1936. In 2009, we reached another record of 9.8%. However, over the last few years, all prior records have now been shattered...

Apr 25, 2023 – Anyone arguing that we are not heading into a recession may be deluding themselves. The biggest deposit flight we have seen in 50 years from commercial banks shows no sign of stopping. Why is this important? Well, commercial banks...

Apr 12, 2023 – The tightening of lending standards by banks, even before the collapse of SVB, is making it difficult for consumers and businesses to borrow, resulting in a decline in loans outstanding. The NFIB Small Business lobby surveys small businesses each month and...