Kurt Kallaus's Blog

Respected media icons, economists, hedge fund managers and self-aggrandized pundits have long predicted an immediate stock market crash and recession upon the astronomically remote odds of a Trump Presidency. Shark Tank’s...

The dreaded recount has begun in this “mini-me” version of the 2000 Bush vs. Gore election. In 2000 there were merely hundreds of votes in one state deciding the election. Complicated by unclear ballots and court battles, it took 5 weeks to resolve leaving a divided electorate...

Commensurate with the resplendent stock market records and faster economic growth rates are the surging interest rates on elevated inflation expectations. A “yuuge” beneficiary of rising yields is the banking sector. After 2 years of stagnant earnings, the bank stocks...

Within 15 years the western world entitlement tsunami enlarged by aging demographics should swamp the global economy during a deeper than normal cyclical contraction, but the tea leaves guiding current economic cycles can be...

When US stocks broke to new record highs in July we began to see excessive optimism creeping into the indices. In August and September, we warned that a top was forming and lower prices into October were likely.

Hold the presses: the bond bear market has been averted! Yesterday’s non-decision on the Federal Funds Rate was a surprise only to the intractable 12% of myopic analysts who want the Fed to get out of the business of printing dollars regardless...

Our recent reports have worried about “short term” stock market froth in August as indicated by options trader sentiment showing relatively heavy Call buying. The additional anxiety over the contrasting US presidential candidates...

The economy remains weak, earnings are poised to continue contacting for the 6th quarter in a row yet stocks has broken out to new record highs in August from an important technical base. Without a strong rebound in earnings, we have...

Oil prices rising from $26 to $46 a barrel this year have helped boost US stocks a whopping 22% from their lows. The digital age led by Amazon and overcapacity of retail space per capita may be killing retail bricks and mortar...

Sentiment, as represented by historical oil contracts held by institutional traders, imply that prices were relatively overbought in May/June, just as they were in the same period of 2015. Assuming oil speculators adjust their positions close to oversold levels...