Kurt Kallaus's Blog

Hard data is soft! Retail sales have contracted 2 months in a row, construction spending and industrial production data are soft and other hard data inputs have pressured economic models sharply lower in their 1st quarter GDP estimates.

The primary US stock market yardstick, the SP 500 Index rallied 17% into March 1st from the spike low on election day. In almost 5 months of stellar gains, the market has yet to experience more than a 2% correction on a closing basis and 3%...

The economic surprise index was already trending higher in the US and around the globe last Fall and Trump’s timing was impeccable as current and expected business activity surged since his election. The Citi Economic Surprise Index falls when real activity is worse than expected...

The surprise Trump victory November 8th catapulted stock indices about 15% higher as of March without even a 2% intraday correction. Our advice since December has been to avoid waiting for dips and stay 95% invested basis the SP 500...

The House of Saud was successful last November in its year-long quest to raise world Oil prices. After a few failed attempts to form a coalition of the willing, Saudi Arabia spent 6 months increasing output to unsustainable levels as part of a grand illusion.

The stock market is a major leading indicator that rallies on optimism in the economy. Stocks represent the sum progress of companies in the present with a premium for what is expected in the future. Often these economic...

While timing is never precise, the extreme 7-year net short positions by Large Spec Funds (inverse of Commercials) investing for lower bond prices indicate an oversold condition supporting prices (lower yields) over the next couple of months...

Until 1981 interest rates had risen for 4 decades and since then yields are in their 4th decade of decline and ironically rates are back near 2% where they began in the 1940’s. Rising interest rates pump fear through the veins of stock...

Trump tweets of taxes at the southern border and the Peso plunges. Mexico has abundant petroleum, cheap labor and a preeminent location for global companies to reach the largest consumption market in the world.

The past 8 years have witnessed one of the worst trends in labor productivity of the past century. Human productivity inexorably rises over time as we learn from our losses and invest with innovative management and capital investments to...