Matthew Kerkhoff's Contributions

By Matthew Kerkhoff – Right now there appear to be three main sources of concern for bulls: high-yield bonds, the Transports, and the slope of the yield curve. Let’s examine each of these individually to see if they warrant a change in...

By Matthew Kerkhoff – Sometimes stock market rallies can be so powerful that you just have to grab ahold of something sturdy and hang on. Every once in a while, the upward surge can be so strong that it feels as though...

By Matthew Kerkhoff – What is the true state of the US economy? Let's look at the data, both positive and negative, to find out. Last month, according to preliminary estimates, the economy lost 33,000 more jobs than it created. This is rather remarkable, considering...

By Matthew Kerkhoff – Expectations are currently that the Federal Reserve will announce plans to begin "quantitative tightening" this Wednesday by unwinding its balance sheet. When you consider that the Fed currently owns around 29% of the market for mortgage-backed securities...

By Matthew Kerkhoff – I was originally going to publish the latest article in our option series today, wrapping up our discussion on getting paid to buy stocks, but the market reaction to North Korea seems more pressing, so we’ll...

By Matthew Kerkhoff – A few years ago, TINA was everywhere … she was the life of the party. Whenever people wondered why stocks kept rising, she’d show up and people would scream, TINA! But I haven’t heard anyone mention...

By Matthew Kerkhoff – Most averages are creeping higher today, but the last couple of weeks of volatile price action has caused some significant damage to the charts. In particular, there are concerns developing in the S&P, the small...

Matthew Kerkhoff – Until just recently, stock market volatility had been exceptionally low, leading many to believe that this market had become “complacent.” That assessment elicits concern because of many view complacency as a...

By Matthew Kerkhoff – Daniel Kahneman, Professor Emeritus at Princeton, is an American psychologist who is well known for his work on the psychology of decision-making and behavioral economics. Together with Amos Tversky, he established...

By Matthew Kerkhoff – John Maynard Keynes once wrote what may be one of the most insightful observations on financial markets ever conceived: We have reached the third degree where we devote our intelligence to anticipating...

By Matthew Kerkhoff – According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), global growth in 2016 was the lowest since 2009. The good news? It’s on the rebound, with growth this year expected to reach 3.5%.

By Matthew Kerkhoff – For many of us, myself included, the desire to become a sophisticated and successful investor quickly leads into the world of economics and geopolitics. As we learn more about the world around us, it becomes evident just...

By Matthew Kerkhoff – Leadership is an important consideration in any type of market, bull or bear. When market leadership is thin and quickly changes direction, it can signal a shift in the tone of the overall market.

By Matthew Kerkhoff – As is often the case, two major areas of interest are sending mixed signals with regard to where the equity market heads next. Corporate profits (as well as revenues) are suggesting more gains lay ahead...

By Matthew Kerkhoff – The secret’s out. The Fed wants to shrink the size of its balance sheet, and they want to begin the process sometime this year. What does this mean for investors? And what does it mean for key variables such as interest rates, inflation...

Not too many people remember the second week of August 2007, but for others, that week will be forever etched in their minds. And in many ways, it should be etched in yours as well. During that infamous week, we witnessed an event that...

We all know that investing is a game of expectations. The market “prices in” certain information, and then we adjust our outlook and positions as those expectations change. A key operating rule of this “game” is that when the best that can be...

Dennis DeBusschere, an analyst over at Evercore ISI, put together this next chart comparing historical S&P valuations (vertical axis) against volatility (horizontal axis). As you can see, the current setup in the market is very unusual, approaching...

I’ve made the case in recent articles that the current rally in US equities is not so much a domestic response, but rather a case of global reflation. If that thesis holds water, then weak economic data here in the US is unlikely to derail this...